Transfer learning approach for financial applications

Artificial neural networks learn how to solve new problems through a computationally intense and time consuming process. One way to reduce the amount of time required is to inject preexisting knowledge into the network. To make use of past knowledge, we can take advantage of techniques that transfer the knowledge learned from one task, and reuse it on another (sometimes unrelated) task. In this paper we propose a novel selective breeding technique that extends the transfer learning with behavioural genetics approach proposed by Kohli, Magoulas and Thomas (2013), and evaluate its performance on financial data. Numerical evidence demonstrates the credibility of the new approach. We provide insights on the operation of transfer learning and highlight the benefits of using behavioural principles and selective breeding when tackling a set of diverse financial applications problems

Love is . . . an abstract word: the influence of phonological and semantic factors on verbal short-term memory in Williams syndrome

It has been claimed that verbal short-term memory in Williams syndrome is characterised by an over-use of phonological coding alongside a reduced contribution of lexical semantics. We critically examine this hypothesis and present results from a memory span task comparing performance on concrete and abstract words, together with a replication of a span task using phonologically similar and phonologically dissimilar words. Fourteen participants with Williams syndrome were individually matched to two groups of typically developing children. The first control group was matched on digit span and the second on vocabulary level. Significant effects were found for both the semantic and the phonological variables in the WS group as well as in the control groups, with no interaction between experimental variable and group in either experiment. The results demonstrate that, despite claims to the contrary, children and adults with WS are able to access and make use of lexical semantics in a verbal short-term memory task in a manner comparable to typically developing individuals

Sub-matrix updates for the Continuous-Time Auxiliary Field algorithm

We present a sub-matrix update algorithm for the continuous-time auxiliary field method that allows the simulation of large lattice and impurity problems. The algorithm takes optimal advantage of modern CPU architectures by consistently using matrix instead of vector operations, resulting in a speedup of a factor of $\approx 8$ and thereby allowing access to larger systems and lower temperature. We illustrate the power of our algorithm at the example of a cluster dynamical mean field simulation of the N\'{e}el transition in the three-dimensional Hubbard model, where we show momentum dependent self-energies for clusters with up to 100 sites

Observation of String Breaking in QCD

We numerically investigate the transition of the static quark-antiquark string into a static-light meson-antimeson system. Improving noise reduction techniques, we are able to resolve the signature of string breaking dynamics for n_f=2 lattice QCD at zero temperature. This result can be related to properties of quarkonium systems. We also study short-distance interactions between two static-light mesons.Comment: 27 pages, 22 figures, changed decimal place of errors in 3 entries of Table, corrected reference

Identifying a sufficient core group for trachoma transmission.

BackgroundIn many infectious diseases, a core group of individuals plays a disproportionate role in transmission. If these individuals were effectively prevented from transmitting infection, for example with a perfect vaccine, then the disease would disappear in the remainder of the community. No vaccine has yet proven effective against the ocular strains of chlamydia that cause trachoma. However, repeated treatment with oral azithromycin may be able to prevent individuals from effectively transmitting trachoma.Methodology/principal findingsHere we assess several methods for identifying a core group for trachoma, assuming varying degrees of knowledge about the transmission process. We determine the minimal core group from a completely specified model, fitted to results from a large Ethiopian trial. We compare this benchmark to a core group that could actually be identified from information available to trachoma programs. For example, determined from the rate of return of infection in a community after mass treatments, or from the equilibrium prevalence of infection.Conclusions/significanceSufficient groups are relatively easy for programs to identify, but will likely be larger than the theoretical minimum

Can Investing Diaries be Hazardous to Your Financial Health?

Business writers and academics have suggested keeping an investing diary to avoid hindsight bias. In the diary, investors justify their predictions of future events, e.g., “This stock will go up because…” Eliminating hindsight bias should improve future returns. However, psychological research on the “explanation effect” suggests that justifying one’s predictions in writing induces overconfidence and, by consequence, reduces current returns. We test these propositions in a set of prediction markets populated by two types of traders: forecasters who completed a required investing diary task and non-forecasters who did not. The portfolios of forecasters were significantly over-invested in securities associated with the forecaster’s prediction. This is consistent with prior psychological research and a clear sign of investor over-confidence. We further find that forecasters with accurate predictions have higher returns than those with inaccurate predictions. However, the returns for forecasters with inaccurate predictions were generally no worse than the returns of the non-forecasters. Our results suggest that while keeping an investing diary may lead to biased portfolios, it does not have an overall negative effect on current returns. Therefore, contrary to expectations, there is not a trade-off between the long-term and short-term effects of an investing diary

Short-term leprosy forecasting from an expert opinion survey.

We conducted an expert survey of leprosy (Hansen's Disease) and neglected tropical disease experts in February 2016. Experts were asked to forecast the next year of reported cases for the world, for the top three countries, and for selected states and territories of India. A total of 103 respondents answered at least one forecasting question. We elicited lower and upper confidence bounds. Comparing these results to regression and exponential smoothing, we found no evidence that any forecasting method outperformed the others. We found evidence that experts who believed it was more likely to achieve global interruption of transmission goals and disability reduction goals had higher error scores for India and Indonesia, but lower for Brazil. Even for a disease whose epidemiology changes on a slow time scale, forecasting exercises such as we conducted are simple and practical. We believe they can be used on a routine basis in public health

A case series of premenstrual disorders presenting to the UK's National Female Hormone Clinic

Aims and method We aimed to describe the clinical characteristics of female patients presenting with premenstrual disorders to a tertiary service in the UK. We conducted a retrospective case-note review of referrals to the National Female Hormone Clinic from April 2014 to August 2020. Based on clinical assessment, we determined whether the patient met criteria for premenstrual dysphoric disorder or premenstrual exacerbation of an underlying psychiatric disorder. Results Of 146 patients seen in clinic for premenstrual disorders, an ICD-10 psychiatric diagnosis was made in 130 (89.0%); a minority 16 (11.0%) did not have a psychiatric diagnosis. Following assessment, 94 patients (64.4%) met criteria for premenstrual dysphoric disorder and 67 (45.6%) had exacerbation of a psychiatric disorder. Clinical implications Patients presenting to this specialist service had complex psychiatric comorbidity; almost half presented with exacerbation of a psychiatric disorder